Sold Caledonia – too soon of course

Having spent weeks trying to persuade myself not to sell my Caledonia shares too soon (a mistake I always seem to make) last Friday I gave up the fight and sold my remaining 2,500 shares at 123p – a profit of 193% on my 42p investment last November. Of course the shares are up another 7% since then to 132.5p today.

Still I wouldn’t be much of a contrarian if the chart below inspired me to do anything other than sell. Moving up in a pretty straight line on very little news and not much change in the gold price. Arguably there is still value in the shares. But a small underground gold mine in Zimbabwe – I’m happy to leave the last bit to someone else.

caledonia-mining-2

The value of Contrarian stands at £166,314 up 5% since I last posted on 9th September. Portfolio performance has been helped by strong showings from Gemfields (+29% following good results yesterday with strong growth plans); Firestone Diamonds (+17% as the company moves towards first production within the next few weeks), and ASX-Listed Panoramic Resources (+29% on no particular news). But with energy stocks hampering performance (Ophir -6%, Tullow -6%, Wentworth – 7%), that still leaves me slightly underperforming the FTSE 350 Mining Index (Total Return) which is up 7% since last post.

Still, with Contrarian at an all time high, I return to the debate as to whether it is relative or absolute performance that matters to the private investor. Chart below.

 

Relative performance chart - 27 Sept 2016.jpg

 

New Holding: Aggreko

Have just bought 300 shares in Aggreko at 1013p. OK, I accept calling this a resources stock is a bit of a stretch – only c35% of revenues come from the oil and gas and mining sectors but in part that reflects the weakness in the sectors and when these rebound so should demand for temporary power solutions. Aggreko blamed weakness in the oil sector the weak H1 results announced in August which saw the stock slip 15% (it has fallen a further 6% since).

So for me it qualifies as not only 1) a very contrarian call – this is a stock which has disappointed recently and is not well loved currently, but also 2) a resources recovery play. As such it is at least a candidate for Contrarian Miner. I would love to give you a fuller explanation of my purchasing/valuation decision. But the fact is I  bought the shares without deeper analysis and will have to make up the reason later.

At the end of a volatile day for the sector, Contrarian now stands at £158,833 with cash of £5,203. Portfolio below.

portfolio-9-sep-2016

 

 

Taking Profits on Caledonia Mining

A few changes to the portfolio:

  • Yesterday I bought 28,000 Panoramic Resources (ASX:PAN) at A$0.205 doubling up my holding in this interesting nickel play
  • Having sat on my hands for months watching it rise, I have just sold half my holding in Caledonia Mining (London: CMCL) 2500 shares at 113p. The company is set to grow production to over 75koz per annum by 2020  at AISC of US$950/oz which would give it annual EBITDA of over US$25m per annum. Arguably that means it still looks very cheap on EV/long term EBITDA of less than 3x and recent statements suggests the development of the deeper levels is very much on track. Nevertheless, located in Zimbabwe with a complex ownership structure (to comply with Zimbabwe’s 51% indigenisation requirement) political risk remains a key consideration as does a fairly limited reserve life (mine plan is based partly on inferred resources). More to the point, I was up 162% in less than a year and that seemed to me a good to time take at least some money off the table

The value of the Contrarian Portfolio currently stands at £159,388 with £8,269 in cash.

 

 

 

 

2% down in two weeks = OK

Back from a well deserved rest (yes, even bloggers take holidays) to find the value of Contrarian Miner at £157,074 – down 2% since I last posted on 22nd August in line with the performance of the FTSE 350 Mining index. Not entirely unexpected (as you may recall when I posted last I was looking for things to sell to create a cash moat), but unfortunately I didn’t get to take advantage of last week’s better buying opportunities. I did buy a further 100,000 Poseidon (ASX: POS) at A$0.056 but that still leaves me with cash of £8,821- not quite burning a hole in my pocket but not much use hanging about either.

Key fallers in the portfolio over the past fortnight have been ASX-listed Panoramic (-13%) which for me looks like an opportunity to add to my small position, Goldcorp (-8%), Antofagasta (-7%) and Lonmin (-7%). Offsetting those losses have been gains from Potash Corp (+9%), Caledonia Mining (+6%) and Firestone, Gemfields and Maurel et Prom (all +2-3%).

Portfolio below.

portfolio-6-sep-2016